Footprints and Offsets

 


 

The term carbon footprint can apply to a single event, such as a journey, but often refers to the greenhouse gases (GHGs) produced by an individual or organisation in a complete year, resulting from factors such as travel, diet, and the use of goods and energy. Carbon footprints can be estimated using a carbon calculator, and the resulting figure is typically given in equivalent tonnes of carbon dioxide (tCO2e). Many online calculators will also suggest that the user buys carbon offsets based on the size of the carbon footprint calculated; for example, informed of an economy return flight from London to New York, one calculator stated that 1.8 t CO2 had been produced, and that this could be offset by a payment of £42 to “carbon offset projects in developing and newly industrialising countries”. Carbon offsets for the individual will be the main topic of this post.

Emissions of greenhouse gas depend not only an individual’s lifestyle, but on geographical and temporal location, since the emissions associated with a given use of energy vary from country to country and from year to year. One figure for a typical annual individual footprint in the UK was given as 12.7 tonnes CO2e (Pawprint, 2020). Those wishing to reduce their footprint may be able to do so by changing their means of travel, avoiding waste, modifying diet, improving house insulation etc., but may wonder how far this process can be taken. A rough idea can be gained by providing a calculator with figures based on a plant based diet, no flying, no private transport, limited use of public transport, and very low expenditure and energy use. This exercise indicates that to reach annual emissions below 2 or 3 tCO2e would be very difficult for many people in the UK. The existence of a lower limit, whatever its value, means that for an individual to approach zero GHG emission, methods additional to reduced consumption are needed.

The cumulative quantity of GHG due to an individual over the years depends on age and on all the other factors so far mentioned. Someone whose life style has been fairly constant may be able to reach an estimate of lifetime GHG emissions based on current annual emissions, or could use typical present figures for the population, but these methods don’t take into account the long term reduction of the carbon coefficient of energy which has taken place in countries such as the UK. Individual lifetime carbon footprint has been described by Hausfather (2019), who points out that the young must adhere to personal CO2 limits much lower than those of the previous generation if the goals of the Paris Agreement are to be met. By combining historical data on emissions and population with projections for the future, Hausfather concludes that to limit global warming to 1.5°C, “the average person born today can emit only an eighth of the lifetime emissions of someone born in 1950.” The analysis presented “is based on the changing global population and emissions during each individual’s lifetime”, and for the UK it results in lifetime budget allocations of 794 tonnes of CO2 for someone born in 1950, while for those born in 2000, 2010 and 2017, the allocations are 256, 147 and 86 tonnes of CO2 respectively. Hausfather points out that calculating lifetime carbon budgets “is necessarily imperfect … Every person is different and, in practice, individual emissions will be strongly affected by income, behaviour and other factors.” For a UK citizen born in 1950, Hausfather’s lifetime budget estimate will be largely based on historical data, and so is likely to be a reasonable guide which accounts for changes in the carbon coefficient of energy over time.

From the above it seems that an individual concerned about climate change who has taken steps to reduce his or her carbon footprint as far as possible may still be faced with irreducible future GHG emissions of several tCO2e per annum, as well historical emissions amounting to hundreds of  tCO2e. To someone wishing to compensate for these emissions, and having the necessary means, carbon offsetting may seem to offer a solution. It has, however, attracted much criticism.

Childs (2020) refers to an EU study of United Nations-sanctioned offset projects, which “found that three quarters of projects were unlikely to have resulted in additional emissions reductions (meaning they would have probably gone ahead anyway)”.  While claiming that carbon offsetting rarely works in practice, he concedes that “that doesn’t mean it never works, and it clearly depends on which projects are being funded.”  Forestry projects are criticised on the grounds that “to be a viable offset project, the carbon must be locked away for thousands of years and tree planting or peatland restoration can’t guarantee this.” It could be argued that Childs is setting the bar a little high here, as few measures could guarantee results over such a long period. A project which sequestered carbon for only a few decades would have value if it bought time for the world to introduce more permanent measures.

The limitations of forestry projects are also stressed by Al Ghussain (2020). “Forests are one of our best lines of defence against climate change and restoring them is crucial, but this can’t be a substitute for reducing carbon emissions directly.” Her target is largely those multinational companies which may use offsetting “to continue with their unsustainable behaviour while shifting their responsibility for the climate onto the consumer”. Here however we are primarily concerned with individuals who have already taken substantial steps to reduce their carbon footprint.

Stevens (n.d.) promotes carbon offsetting, but nevertheless writes that “Offsetting alone is clearly not going to tackle climate change” and that worldwide and rapid decarbonisation is required. However until this is accomplished “everyone will have a carbon footprint, regardless of how hard they try to reduce it.” He sees reducing an “equivalent amount of carbon emissions through voluntary carbon offsetting” as “the most cost effective, fast and efficient way” of addressing this problem.

Many more criticisms of carbon offset programs can be found, along with instances of failure and scams, and some are mentioned by Niiler (2020) in an article entitled “Do Carbon Offsets Really Work? It Depends on the Details”. Niiler also refers to a report from the University of Oxford which attempts to define principles for carbon offsetting (Allen et al., 2020). This report lists “some of the well-known risks associated with existing offsets” such as “improper carbon accounting, re-release of stored carbon, negative unintended impacts on humans or ecosystems” which can be reduced by current best practice, and outlines the approach which is needed to ensure that offsetting helps achieve a net zero society. Current best practice can be summarised as minimising the need for offsets by reducing your own emissions; ensuring environmental integrity by using verifiable, correctly accounted and low risk offsets; and - for organisations - disclosing current emissions, accounting practices, targets, and the type of offsets used. Having adopted current best practice, the next stage is for users of offsets to “increase the portion of their offsets that come from carbon removals, rather than from emission reductions, ultimately reaching 100% carbon removals by midcentury to ensure compatibility with the Paris Agreement goals.”(‘Carbon removals’ here means direct capture of CO2 from the atmosphere). A third stage is to move from “Short-lived storage offsets [which] help buy time to reduce emissions” towards “methods of storing carbon that have a low risk of reversal over centuries to millennia, such as storing CO2 in geological reservoirs or mineralising carbon into stable forms.” The final stage includes actions which are primarily applicable to organisations, though the recommendation to support “the restoration and protection of a wide range of natural and semi-natural ecosystems in their own right” can also refer to individual choices of carbon offsets.

An individual approach to offsets is taken by Sloane (2019a). He begins with the question: “If you had $1 million dollars and your goal was to reduce as much CO2 in the atmosphere as possible by 2050, what would you spend it on?” Sloane first cites work by the DrawDown organisation which ranked activities in terms of their total capacity for CO2 reduction. At the head of the list came refrigerant management, with a potential to reduced total atmospheric CO2 equivalent by more than 89 gigatonnes; other examples were educating girls, ranked fifth, with a potential of more than 51 Gt; and rooftop solar in tenth place with over 24 Gt potential. The focus of the article is however primarily on the cost of avoiding each tonne of CO2e emission. Using data from DrawDown and other sources, Sloane shows the cost of CO2 reduction per tonne by various methods, together with the potential magnitude of reduction in graphic form, highlighting those methods with both low cost and high overall potential, which may be candidate solutions for the million dollar philanthropist.

The five areas selected for both high impact and low cost are silvopasture, “the practice of integrating trees, forage, and the grazing of domesticated animals in a mutually beneficial way” with a cost of $1 per tonne CO2e; tropical forest restoration on degraded land ($4 per tonne CO2e ); educating girls and family planning ($5 per tonne CO2e); reduction of food waste ($8 per tonne CO2e); and refrigerant management($10 per tonne CO2e). Some of the least cost effective areas are listed for comparison: they include Green Roofs ($1,800 per tonne CO2e); Electric Vehicles ($1,300 per tonne CO2e); and High-speed rail ($700 per tonne CO2e).

In a subsequent article (Sloane, 2019b) the writer considered organizations working in some of the areas referred to above. He found none concentrating specifically on silvopasture, and that organisations working on reduction of food waste tended to be locally based (for example food banks). However, tropical forests are of interest to the intergovernmental organisation Coalition for Rainforest Nations, and several charities for girls & women are recommended by The Life You Can Save, the organisation founded by the philosopher Peter Singer. Sloane doesn’t name any organisations seeking to control refrigerants. (However, Giving Green referred to Tradewater, mentioned below).

A number of organisations attempt to set standards for carbon offset projects. Verra has its headquarters in Washington and claims that its “global standards and frameworks serve as linchpins for channeling finance towards high-impact activities that tackle some of the most pressing environmental issues of our day”. It also manages the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS), which it describes as “the world’s most widely used voluntary GHG program.” Criteria include proof of GHG reductions and removals, use of recognized measurement tools, measures to insure permanence of GHG removal, and  the requirement that “GHG emission reductions and removals must be additional to what would have happened under a business-as-usual scenario if the project had not been carried out” (Verra, 2021). The organisation lists projects under 15 categories, which include energy, manufacturing, construction, transport, mining, fugitive emissions, waste, land use and livestock management.  The Climate Action Reserve claims to be “the premier carbon offset registry for the North American carbon market” and issues carbon offset credits for projects in areas such as coal mine methane, land use, landfill, organic waste processes and ozone depletion (Climate Action Reserve, 2021). The American Carbon Registry aims “to create confidence in the environmental and scientific integrity of carbon offsets in order to accelerate transformational emission reduction actions.” Its interests include agriculture, forestry and other land use; energy efficiency; industrial process emissions; renewable energy and transportation (American Carbon Registry, 2020). The Swiss-based NGO Gold Standard lists the various criteria which the projects it supports have to meet, such as making positive impacts on at least three of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, one of which must be Climate Action. (The 17 Goals are listed in UN, 2015). Gold Standard recommends to “eco-conscious individuals” that they measure their impact on the climate, take steps to reduce it as far as possible, and then support appropriate projects through carbon offset schemes (Gold Standard, 2021). The organisation lists a number of projects which meet its standards, and in appropriate cases gives a price in $/tCO2e.  Some examples indicate the diversity of projects and the cost of buying credits: a wind farm project in Indonesia, $10/tonne; use of agricultural waste for home heating in China, $15/tonne; a biodiversity project in S.W. Australia, $20/tonne; a reforestation project in Nicaragua, $34/tonne.

A further group of organisations seeks to advise potential donors in their choice of charities.  The American organisation Charity Navigator claims to have “become the nation's largest and most-utilized evaluator of charities.” Its rating system involves evaluation of “financial health including measures of stability, efficiency and sustainability” along with accountability, transparency of policies, governance and integrity (Charity Navigator, 2021). Founders Pledge (2021), based in London, describes itself as “a global community of entrepreneurs” who find and fund “solutions to the world’s most pressing problems”. Its charity research empowers its members “to bring their resources to the global problem solving table.” Giving Green (2020) offers “an evidence-based guide to help donors and volunteers fight climate change.” It is largely focussed on America and identifies two current key areas: “Carbon Offsets, which seek to cause immediate, verifiable decreases of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere; and US Policy Change, which aims to change US policy to drive considerable reductions in emissions”. The Life You Can Save (2021) is an American organisation which aims to make “smart giving” simple “by curating a group of nonprofits that save or improve the most lives per dollar.” It publishes a list of charities which “have been rigorously evaluated to help you make the biggest impact per dollar.” It is mentioned here because its list includes the charities for girls & women referred to in Sloane 2019b. Project DrawDown (2021), based in San Francisco, describes itself as the world’s leading resource for climate solutions, and aims to “uncover the most substantive solutions to stop climate change, and to communicate them to the world.” It conducts an “ongoing review and analysis of climate solutions” and information on these is provided in its publication The Drawdown Review 2020 (available as a pdf download).

Organisations recommended by Charity Navigator include the Rainforest Trust, Rainforest Alliance, Coalition for Rainforest Nations, and the Clean Air Task Force (CATF). The Rainforest Trust (2020) has headquarters in Vancouver, and claims to have “already helped protect over 33 million acres around the world and have millions of acres in the pipeline, working toward the security of 50 million acres.” Its website lists over a hundred projects, with a strong emphasis on protecting endangered species. The Rainforest Alliance (2021) has offices around the world, is registered in the USA, and lists its main issues as Forests, Livelihoods, Climate and Human Rights. In the climate sector, it “focuses on natural climate solutions like forest conservation, forest restoration, and improved land management in order to increase carbon storage, avoid greenhouse gas emissions, and build resilience to changing weather patterns.” The Coalition for Rainforest Nations (2020) has its head office in New York and “assists tropical governments, communities and peoples responsibly manage their rainforests.” It quotes Founders Pledge: “Amongst all the organisations evaluated, CfRN stands out because of outsized leverage of their presence at key international negotiations grants them. As an example, they were instrumental in securing an agreement on forestry in the Paris Agreement in 2015”. Clean Air Task Force (2021) has its main office in Boston, and is also recommended by Founders Pledge. It describes its task as “to reduce climate change by applying an overwhelming amount of force to some of the biggest levers to reduce carbon and other climate warming emissions.” The issues with which it is concerned are advanced energy systems, advanced nuclear energy, bioenergy, decarbonised fossils energy, power plants, and super pollutants. Giving Green recommends BURN (2021), which makes and distributes fuel-efficient stoves in Kenya, and Tradewater (2021), whose mission is “to improve our environment and create economic opportunity through the collection, control, and destruction of potent, high impact greenhouse gases.” The Life You Can Save recommends Population Services International (2021) which helps “women, children and families in the developing world through disease prevention, treatment and testing, sexual and reproductive health, and other health services.”

What place might carbon offsets have in the answer to Sloane’s question: “If you had $1 million dollars and your goal was to reduce as much CO2 in the atmosphere as possible by 2050, what would you spend it on?” One possible answer would be that so much uncertainty surrounds offsets that none of the money should be used to buy them. Another could be based on risk and comparison to other opportunities. Sloane gave a figure of $1,300 as the cost of saving one tonne CO2e through buying electric vehicles; assuming this to be correct, and that the million dollars was purely for reducing GHGs without thought of financial return, we can try a comparison with the cost of buying carbon offsets. Suppose that offsets in a wide range of schemes are conveniently (but not unrealistically) priced at $13 per tonne CO2e; we imagine buying a hundred such offsets in different schemes. If only one of these schemes makes the promised return, and the other ninety nine are complete failures, then provided that they have done no harm, the one tonne of CO2e saved has cost the same in both cases.  If only two of the hundred offset schemes perform as promised, the offset donation will have been twice as productive as the electric vehicle expenditure. This is, of course, to over simplify, but if we can be satisfied that no offset schemes produce significant harm, it argues for a portion of the $1 million to be used on buying offsets. If there are associated benefits such as human wellbeing or species preservation, the argument is strengthened.

References

 

Al Ghussain, A., 2020, “The biggest problem with carbon offsetting is that it doesn’t really work”, Greenpeace, online

https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/news/the-biggest-problem-with-carbon-offsetting-is-that-it-doesnt-really-work/

Allen, M., et al., 2020, “The Oxford Principles for Net Zero Aligned Carbon

Offsetting”, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford

https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/publications/reports/Oxford-Offsetting-Principles-2020.pdf

American Carbon Registry, 2020, online

https://americancarbonregistry.org

BURN, 2021, online

https://burnstoves.com

Charity Navigator, 2021, online

https://www.charitynavigator.org

Childs, M., 2020, “Does carbon offsetting work?” Friends of the Earth, online

https://friendsoftheearth.uk/climate/does-carbon-offsetting-work

Clean Air Task Force, 2021, online

https://www.catf.us

Climate Action Reserve, 2021, online

https://www.climateactionreserve.org

Coalition for Rainforest Nations, 2020, online

https://www.rainforestcoalition.org

DrawDown, 2021, online

https://drawdown.org

Founders Pledge, 2021, online

https://founderspledge.com

Giving Green, 2020, online

https://www.givinggreen.earth

Gold Standard, 2021, online

https://www.goldstandard.org

Hausfather, Z., 2019, “Global emissions of CO2 need to decline precipitously over the next few decades, if the world is to meet the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to “well below 2C”, Carbon Brief.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-children-must-emit-eight-times-less-co2-than-their-grandparents

Niiler, E., 2020, “Do Carbon Offsets Really Work? It Depends on the Details”, Wired, online

https://www.wired.com/story/do-carbon-offsets-really-work-it-depends-on-the-details/

Pawprint, 2020, online

https://www.pawprint.eco/eco-blog/average-carbon-footprint-uk

Population Services International, 2021, online

https://www.psi.org

Rainforest Alliance, 2021, online

https://www.rainforest-alliance.org

Rainforest Trust, 2021, online

https://www.rainforesttrust.org

Sloane, T., 2019a, “Applying effective altruism to climate change”, online, Medium.com

https://medium.com/@tsloane/applying-effective-altruism-to-climate-change-e2d703f6414f

Sloane, T., 2019b, “Top charities for climate change”, online, Medium.com

https://medium.com/@tsloane/top-charities-for-climate-change-54ddf6911e1

Stevens, R., n.d., “Carbon Offset Mythbuster: Thinking of going climate neutral?” climatecare, online

https://climatecare.org/carbon-offset-mythbuster/

The Life You Can Save, 2021, online

https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org  and

https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/causes-to-support/women-charities/

Tradewater, 2021, online

https://tradewater.us

UN, 2015, “The 17 Goals”, United Nations, online

https://sdgs.un.org/goals

Verra, 2021, “Standards for a Sustainable Future”, online

https://verra.org

 

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