SDGs, Sunak’s retrenchment, and the UK carbon budget

A June editorial in Nature (2023) commented that “the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals are heading for the rocks” although the “failure to meet even one of the SDGs is not for want of trying.” It referred to the 2023 Global Sustainable Development Report, published a few days previously, in which “an independent group of science advisers to the UN proposed a way forwards” (GSDR, 2023). The Nature editorial promised a series of articles looking forward to the September session of the UN General Assembly in New York, at which the Sustainable Development Goals would be debated. The UN described this 78th session as marking “a crucial milestone in the journey towards achieving the 2030 Agenda and the urgent need to put the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) back on track.” (UN, 2023)

The General Debate took place between 19th and 26th September. On September 20th, The Guardian carried an article about PM Sunak’s plans to delay some climate targets, in order “to save money for families” (Guardian, 2023a). The plans were presented in the article under the headings of cars, boilers, insulation, and behaviour change. The date for banning the sale of new cars with combustion engines has been pushed back from 2030 to 2035; plans to phase out the installation of gas boilers by 2035 have been changed to aim for only an 80% phase-out; homeowners and landlords would no longer be required to meet energy efficiency targets; and the PM confirmed that “his party will not take forward policies that would encourage more sustainable behaviour, such as taxing airlines properly and informing the public of the carbon footprint of meat.” Comments pointing to the defects in the proposals appeared under each heading, with a final section entitled “The costs of not reaching net zero” which referred to the “negative long-term impact on the UK economy”, the costs of continued gas reliance, cost of living impacts from extreme weather events, and suffering the long-term consequences of a warmer world. The article ended with a point made by Prof. Ed Hawkins of the University of Reading, that “It also matters how we reach net zero, not just when”. This aspect of climate change planning received relatively little attention in the initial media coverage and will be explored further below.

The UK Government’s legal obligation to meet its net zero commitments is widely known, but the five-year carbon budgets already set are also legally binding. A guidance document on the subject states that “A carbon budget places a restriction on the total amount of greenhouse gases the UK can emit over a 5-year period. The UK is the first country to set legally binding carbon budgets” (GOV.UK, 2016). The dates and targets for budgets 4 to 6 are: 2023 – 2027, 1,950 MtCO2e; 2028 – 2032, 1,725 MtCO2e; and 2033 -- 2037, 965 MtCO2e. These budgets would presumably have to be unaffected by the recent plans to delay meeting targets if they are to stay within the law.

There have been comments on possible legal challenges to PM Sunak’s relaxation of climate targets. The Guardian (2023b, 2023c) reported that campaigners “including Friends of the Earth and The Good Law Project are now assessing how they can stop a rollback that would allow new petrol and diesel cars, and gas boilers, to be sold for longer” while a possible legal action by an individual was the subject of an article in The National (2023). The latter may argue that the Government is required to follow a series of carbon budget plans on the way to becoming net zero by 2050.

In its recent assessment of announcements and developments (CCC, 2023) the UK’s Climate Change Committee reported that the recent policy announcements “were not accompanied by estimates of their effect on future emissions, nor evidence to back the Government’s assurance that the UK’s targets will still be met”.  The CCC urged the Government “to adopt greater transparency in updating its analysis at the time of major announcements.” While acknowledging that it did not have all the information that it needed for a full assessment, the CCC attempted to predict how plans to meet climate change targets would be affected. Some targets will be harder to meet through “both the direct impacts of reduced policy ambition and through the Government’s indication that it will loosen certain Net Zero policies.” The decarbonisation of buildings will be more difficult due to the exemption of 20% of households from the phase-out which “will have an impact on emissions all the way out to 2050 – making Net Zero considerably harder to achieve”, and it creates uncertainty for consumers and supply chains. In view of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate, delaying the fossil car phase-out date to 2035 is “expected to have only a small direct impact on future emissions”, though the uncertainty that has been introduced by changing near-term consumer targets may have indirect consequences. The perception that the Government’s ambition regarding Net Zero has been relaxed “risks undermining consumer confidence and the development of UK supply chains, which are particularly important for delivery of buildings decarbonisation.” Overall, the CCC thinks that the UK is unlikely to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution “to reduce emissions by 68% between 1990 and 2030” and urges the Government “to restate strong British leadership on climate change in the crucial period before COP28.”

References

 

CCC, 2023, CCC assessment of recent announcements and developments on Net Zero, Climate Change Committee, 12 October 2023, online, accessed 13 Oct 2023

https://www.theccc.org.uk/2023/10/12/ccc-assessment-of-recent-announcements-and-developments-on-net-zero/

GOV.UK, 2016, Carbon Budgets, GOV.UK, updated 2021, online, accessed 16 Oct 2023

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/carbon-budgets

GSDR, 2023, 2023 Global Sustainable Development Report, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, online, accessed 14 Oct 2023  https://sdgs.un.org/gsdr/gsdr2023

Guardian, 2023a, UK net zero policies: what has Sunak scrapped and what do changes mean? The Guardian, 20 September 2023, online, accessed 14 Oct 2023 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/20/uk-net-zero-policies-scrapped-what-do-changes-mean

Guardian, 2023b, Rishi Sunak likely to face legal challenges over net zero U-turn, The Guardian, 21 Sept 2023, online, accessed 14 Oct 2023 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/21/rishi-sunak-likely-to-face-legal-challenges-over-net-zero-u-turn

Guardian, 2023c, Rishi Sunak announces U-turn on key green targets, The Guardian, 20 Sept 2023, online, accessed 17 Oct 2023

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/20/rishi-sunak-confirms-rollback-of-key-green-targets

National, 2023, Chris Packham launches legal challenge against Rishi Sunak, The National, 4 Oct 2023, online, accessed 14 Oct 2023

https://www.thenational.scot/news/23832473.chris-packham-issues-legal-challenge-pm-delay-net-zero/

Nature, 2023, The world’s plan to make humanity sustainable is failing. Science can do more to save it, Nature, 20 June 2023, online, accessed 14 Oct 2023

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01989-9

UN, 2023, General Assembly High-level Week 2023, United Nations, online, accessed 16 Oct 2023

https://www.un.org/en/high-level-week-2023

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